Welcome to the first installment of our deep-dive series into the shifting sands of the M&A landscape. At Next Point Ventures, we spend our days looking at inflection points: those specific moments where a business is poised to scale, pivot, or exit. Right now, the entire global market is at one of those points.

Over the next few weeks, we are rolling out a 5-part series designed to give founders, operators, and investors a clear-eyed view of where the money is moving and why. Here’s what we’re covering:

The State of Global M&A in 2026: The Big Shift Toward Capital Concentration (This Article)
Where the Real Deals Are Happening: The Lower-Middle-Market and Sub-$100M Thesis.
The AI and Software Consolidation: Why Tech is the New Talent Acquisition.
Private Equity’s New Playbook: Adapting to the "New Normal" of Interest Rates.
The Next M&A Cycle: Predictions for 2026–2030.

If you’ve been reading the headlines, you’ve probably seen a lot of conflicting noise. "Deal volume is down!" "The market is rebounding!" The truth is more nuanced. The M&A market isn't just recovering; it's evolving into something more strategic and concentrated than we’ve seen in decades.

The Tale of the Tape: 2025 by the Numbers

To understand where we are going in 2026, we have to look at the data from the year that just closed. According to the latest PitchBook datasets, global dealmaking in 2025 hit approximately $3.9 trillion.

On the surface, that looks like a massive win: it’s an 11.4% increase in total deal value year-over-year. But here’s the kicker: the total number of transactions actually fell by 14.1%, dropping to 38,285 deals globally.

What does that tell us? It tells us that while there are fewer people at the table, the people who are playing are placing much larger bets. This is the "Capital Concentration" shift. We’ve moved from a "spray and pray" high-volume environment to an era dominated by strategic consolidation.

Buyers are no longer looking for "optionality"; they are looking for platforms.

Why Average Deal Size is Skyrocketing

In 2024, the average deal size hovered around $78 million. By the end of 2025, that number jumped to $101 million.

This isn't just inflation. It’s a structural shift in how Private Equity and Corporate Development teams view risk. In a world where interest rates have stabilized but remain higher than the "free money" era of 2021, the cost of capital is real. When capital costs money, you don't waste it on speculative, small-scale acquisitions unless they are incredibly strategic.

Instead, we are seeing a "flight to quality." Investors are prioritizing companies with:

Proven EBITDA and clear margins.
Strong defensibility (moats).
The ability to serve as a "platform" for future acquisitions.

As Marc Snyderman, founder of Next Point Ventures, puts it:
“The M&A market isn’t shrinking : it’s concentrating. The next cycle will reward investors who understand sectors deeply and can build platforms, not just chase deals.”

The Emerging K-Curve in Dealmaking

Research shows the emergence of a "K-curve" in the M&A market. On the upper arm of the K, we have mega-deals and large-cap transactions. In 2025, we saw 106 deals valued above $5 billion: a staggering 67.4% increase in mega-deal activity. These transactions alone accounted for over 30% of the total global M&A value.

On the lower arm, smaller, less strategic companies are finding it harder to attract premium multiples. The "valuation gap": the difference between what a seller thinks they are worth and what a buyer is willing to pay: remains a hurdle for many mid-market businesses that haven't properly prepared for an exit.

This is exactly why we emphasize preparation through our affiliate, Prep4MA. Whether you are looking to buy or sell, you cannot afford to walk into a 2026 negotiation with 2021 expectations. You need to be "exit ready" at all times, ensuring your financials, operations, and tech stack are positioned to withstand the scrutiny of a market that is increasingly picky.

If you're wondering how to start that process, our guide on 10 strategic steps to prepare your company for sale is a great place to start.

The Strategic Shift: From Growth at All Costs to Platform Playbooks

For the last decade, M&A was often used to buy growth. Today, it’s being used to buy resilience and capability.

We are seeing a massive surge in what we call "Platform Acquisitions." Instead of buying a dozen small competitors, a Private Equity firm or a Venture Studio like Next Point Ventures will acquire one high-performing "anchor" business and then use that infrastructure to roll up smaller, complementary companies.

This strategy lowers the overall risk profile and creates significant synergies. It’s also why traditional sectors: manufacturing, industrials, and business services: still account for roughly 40% of global M&A activity. While AI gets the headlines (and we will talk about the AI acquisition boom in Part 3 of this series), the "Old Economy" is where the heavy lifting of consolidation is happening.

Geography Matters: North America Still Leads

Despite the talk of global decentralization, capital concentration is also a geographic phenomenon. North America and Europe together accounted for over 80% of global M&A activity in 2025.

The U.S. remains the center of the dealmaking universe, largely due to the depth of its private equity markets and the relative stability of its economy compared to other regions. However, we are seeing interesting movements in cross-border deals. While the total count of cross-border transactions is down, the total value hit $1.318 trillion.

Big players are looking across borders to secure supply chains and grab market share in emerging regions, but they are doing so with bigger, more calculated moves.

What This Means for You

Whether you are a founder looking to exit in the next 18 months or an investor looking for your next play, the 2026 environment requires a different lens.

For Founders: You need to show that you aren't just a "job" or a "small business." You need to show how you fit into a larger platform strategy. Scale matters more than ever.
For Investors: The days of finding "cheap" deals might be over, but the opportunity to build massive value through consolidation has never been better.
For SMBs: If you are under that $100M mark, don't panic. You actually represent 74% of the total transaction count. You are the "inventory" for the platform builders: but only if you are organized.

At Next Point Ventures, we focus on these inflection points. We help businesses bridge the gap between where they are and where they need to be to attract this concentrated capital. Through our solution stack, we provide the strategic guidance to turn a standalone company into a high-value acquisition target.

Wrapping Up Part 1

The state of global M&A in 2026 is one of focused strength. The "froth" is gone, replaced by a disciplined pursuit of scale and strategic dominance. As deal values rise and volume settles, the winners will be those who don't just "chase deals" but understand the deeper sector dynamics at play.

Stay tuned for Part 2, where we’re going to look at the "Hidden Opportunity" in the sub-$100M market. It turns out, that while the mega-deals get the news, the real work (and the real profit) is happening in the lower-middle market.

Want to make sure your business is ready for the 2026 M&A wave? Reach out to us at Next Point Ventures or check out our work with Prep4MA to start your journey toward a strategic exit.

The State of Global M&A in 2026: The Big Shift Toward Capital Concentration